Tennis is an incredibly complex, tactical and meticulous game with perhaps the most unique scoring system of any mainstream sport, but is there a way to simplify it by finding a mathematical formula which expresses a player's chance of winning a match based only on his/her chance of winning a point? In this article I look at how to build an expression which takes two inputs (probability of winning a point on-serve and on return) and is able to output an accurate estimate of that player's chance of winning a full match.